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		<title>MacroStar: Vision or Hallucination?</title>
		<link>http://scottjberry.com/2008/04/02/macrostar-vision-or-hallucination/</link>
		<comments>http://scottjberry.com/2008/04/02/macrostar-vision-or-hallucination/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Apr 2008 14:26:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Scott Berry</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Cable/Telcos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Digital Media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Video]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Apple]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cisco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gemstar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Motorola]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RealNetworks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rovi]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://scottjberry.com/2008/04/02/macrostar-vision-or-hallucination/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This morning Macrovision (MVSN) reported it has completed the divestiture of its software business, including the FLEXnet and InstallShield product lines, raising $200M. With the previously announced sale of its games unit to RealNetworks (RNWK), Macrovision is well on its way to completely transforming its business. What remains is to consummate the merger with Gemstar/TV [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=scottjberry.com&amp;blog=3386510&amp;post=10&amp;subd=scottjberry&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://bp3.blogger.com/_M80mDgxGedY/R_OqVMH6_uI/AAAAAAAAABA/400IYZHgksM/s1600-h/M+Loves+G.png"><img style="cursor:pointer;" src="http://bp3.blogger.com/_M80mDgxGedY/R_OqVMH6_uI/AAAAAAAAABA/400IYZHgksM/s320/M+Loves+G.png" border="0" alt="" /></a><br />
This morning <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Macrovision</span> (<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/mvsn"><span class="blsp-spelling-error">MVSN</span></a>) <a href="http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/template.NDM/news/more/?javax.portlet.tpst=0b2c9a4dd5f89b80977dd367cc87b42f_ws_MX&amp;javax.portlet.prp_0b2c9a4dd5f89b80977dd367cc87b42f_viewID=news_view_popup&amp;javax.portlet.prp_0b2c9a4dd5f89b80977dd367cc87b42f_newsLang=en&amp;javax.portlet.prp_0b2c9a4dd5f89b80977dd367cc87b42f_ndmHsc=v2*A1204549200000*B1207168034000*DgroupByDate*J2*L1*N1000837*Zmvsn&amp;javax.portlet.prp_0b2c9a4dd5f89b80977dd367cc87b42f_newsId=20080401006883&amp;beanID=202776713&amp;viewID=news_view_popup&amp;javax.portlet.begCacheTok=com.vignette.cachetoken&amp;javax.portlet.endCacheTok=com.vignette.cachetoken">reported</a> it has completed the divestiture of its software business, including the <span class="blsp-spelling-error">FLEXnet</span> and <span class="blsp-spelling-error">InstallShield</span> product lines, raising $200M.  With the previously announced <a href="http://www.macrovision.com/company/newscenter/pressreleases/1434_8276.htm">sale of its games unit</a> to <span class="blsp-spelling-error">RealNetworks</span> (<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/rnwk"><span class="blsp-spelling-error">RNWK</span></a>),  <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Macrovision</span> is well on its way to completely transforming its business. What remains is to consummate the merger with <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Gemstar</span>/TV Guide (<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/gmst"><span class="blsp-spelling-error">GMST</span></a>).</p>
<p>The company believes that with the cash raised from these recent sales, it has reduced the amount of debt needed to finance the <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Gemstar</span> purchase by nearly 20%, to just $650M.  Expect to see a good portion of this remaining debt retired early, as <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Macrovision</span> spins off non-strategic portions of <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Gemstar</span> once it&#8217;s folded in&#8211;notably the TV Guide print business, which I believe is orthogonal to <span class="blsp-spelling-error">MVSN&#8217;s</span> core strategy.  This could significantly shorten the loan payback on the purchase from the 2011 date CFO James Budge originally estimated.</p>
<p>That all assumes, of course, that the deal goes through.  Many <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Gemstar</span> shareholders were none too happy when the merger was first announced in December.  Ditto many <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Macrovision</span> investors, who either did not understand or did not believe the vision management articulated.   I would argue Budge and CEO Fred <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Amoroso</span> did a poor job of explaining it at the time, using lots of effusive, scripted prose but leaving behind what felt like a distinctive snake oil residue.</p>
<p>However, there is a method in the madness here, a bit more visible now that extraneous bits have been spun out.  The key is to understand <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Macrovision&#8217;s</span> three key constituencies: Hollywood studios, consumer electronics manufacturers, and cable companies (<span class="blsp-spelling-error">MSOs</span>).  Traditionally, the studios paid for copy protection, manufacturers licensed the tech for <span class="blsp-spelling-error">VCRs</span> and DVD players, and <span class="blsp-spelling-error">MSOs</span> paid to ensure compatibility between studio copy protection and their <span class="blsp-spelling-error">headend</span> gear.  Great high-margin cash business.  All good.</p>
<p>But a year or so ago, <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Macrovision</span> acquired <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Mediabolic</span>, which gives it technology to enable (copy-protected) video transfer between PCs and multiple devices within the home.  Say, to <span style="font-style:italic;">cable set-top boxes</span>.  They have already signed Scientific Atlanta (<a href="http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/csco"><span class="blsp-spelling-error">CSCO</span></a>) as a customer, and I believe either Motorola or NDS is also on board.</p>
<p>Next, they bought All Media Guide, which provides <span class="blsp-spelling-error">metadata</span> for video and music.  By acquiring <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Gemstar</span>, <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Macrovision</span> gains television guide info&#8211;again, <span class="blsp-spelling-error">metadata</span>.  <span class="blsp-spelling-error">MVSN</span> can now license both algorithms and information to device manufacturers and cable companies, while helping Hollywood protect its content wherever it is transferred.  In the bargain, consumers would get a seamless home video capability.</p>
<p>Your existing set-top box becomes a media hub.  Can you say &#8220;<span class="blsp-spelling-error">AppleTV</span>&#8220;?  I knew you could.</p>
<p>Arguably, <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Macrovision</span> has made some missteps with its strategy in the past.  The software business had low margins relative to <span class="blsp-spelling-error">MVSN&#8217;s</span> licensing unit, and games was pretty much a bust.  But unlike many firms, it has been fairly quick to recognize errors and dispose of losing businesses.  And this vision, however poorly spelled out by management, feels right.</p>
<p>Based on April 1 closing prices, and assuming no change in the original terms, the <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Gemstar</span> deal is now valued at about $2.22B, 21% below the original $2.8B figure but slightly above the current market cap.  This compares to a 9% drop in the S&amp;P500 over the same period, and largely reflects the poor reaction of traders to both sides of the deal.  The SEC just declared the S-4 effective and proxies are being mailed out. As both boards  are already signed up (including Rupert Murdoch, with 41% ownership), it looks like the merger will go through.</p>
<p>Given the margin expansion that will follow the spin out of the poorer performing Software and Games units, <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Macrovision</span> may be somewhat undervalued, even allowing for the anticipated share dilution.  But for <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Gemstar</span> investors who believe this vision could become reality, there&#8217;s substantial upside post-merger if the firm can execute properly.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight:bold;">Disclosure:</span> <span style="font-style:italic;">Author holds no positions in either <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Macrovision</span> or <span class="blsp-spelling-error">Gemstar</span>.</span></p>
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