Digitalics

Crybaby

January 21, 2009 at 12:40 pm 4 comments

It was exciting to watch such an historic inauguration yesterday.  I wish President Obama well.  [Note to the folks at WordPress: "Obama" is getting flagged by your spellcheck.  You probably want to fix that...]

He is clearly inheriting a mess, no matter whom you believe was responsible for it.   The Onion certainly has one view, as they noted on a recent video piece:  “Obama to keep Bush on as National Scapegoat.“

Terrorism threats, two wars to resolve–and plenty to avoid being entangled in, a banking system nearing either collapse or nationalization, a recession (perhaps a depression), energy and environmental issues, the list goes on and on.

The state of the country brings to mind my son, who as a baby suffered from colic.

As any of you who’ve experienced it know, this is a disaster.  For months, no matter what we did, he would just start crying for no apparent reason.  Every night, like clockwork.  (And before you ask, no, it wasn’t synced to the market close.)

Nothing we did, no medicine, no old folk remedy, no comfort we provided, seemed to help.  It simply had to run its course.  When his colicky period ended we were relieved, and now it’s a distant memory for us.

I suspect this is how–eventually–some of our current crises will play out.

I’m optimistic that Obama will be a very good President.  His early moves have indicated he is deliberative and even-handed.  And most of all, intelligent.  This is a hopeful time for many.    [Disclosure:  I voted for Obama.  My respect for his intelligence and leadership overcame my reluctance over his inexperience and the fear he would be too liberal.  I hope I am right.]

Some have suggested President Obama’s first major crisis will be a terrorist strike.  Others have opined that the economy will severely test our new leader.  I have another suspicion, that Obama’s initial challenge will be dealing with the inevitable disillusionment that accompanies his first few failures.  The existing groundswell of support, hope, enthusiasm, and (here it comes) irrational exuberance may not serve Obama well in the coming months.

When he stumbles, many of his supporters–some perhaps the most fervent–could quickly become critics instead.

In other words, it appears we are in an Obama bubble.  And when the bubble pops, there will likely be some oscillation in our new President’s approval rating.

This is not to say he will fail all together.  As I said, I’m hopeful.  But he is not perfect, he does not walk on water, nor did he arrive from the mountain with tablets in hand.  He is human.  More important, he is a politician, and is surrounded by other politicians.  Each with their own beliefs, agendas, and baggage.  No matter how well he has picked his advisers and cabinet, that will not change.

Still, he has already done one thing right.  By inheriting a country with so many issues–real and perceived–it appears there is very little downside risk for him.  And tremendous potential on the upside.

Or as a rather crafty mentor of mine said to me long ago:  “Never accept an offer to hold a happy baby.”

Disclosure: I hold no position, either long or short, in any stocks mentioned here.

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