Viral Marketing
January 5, 2009
Smartphone applications are one of the biggest trends going, one that will only get bigger in 2009. Not exactly unexpected, especially for anyone who’s followed Salesforce.com’s (NYSE: CRM) AppExchange model. But despite how Google’s Android (NASDAQ: GOOG) foreshadowed the market, it’s taken the brilliance of Steve Jobs to get the ball rolling.
On the one hand, the dynamics are similar to ring tones
- Cheap. A few bucks each; some are free
- Easy. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) sets the standard for ease-of-use, though with the usual drawbacks that come from its closed system. Android’s market will be a little more “wild west”, but probably more innovative for it.
- Not originated by the service provider. The best services never are, telcos are about as innovative as rocks.
- Customizable. Make your phone personal, whether it’s playing apps or having different ring tones for each caller.
- Cachet. Everyone wants the latest “cool” app, just like they wanted the most popular songs to sound out whenever their phone rings.
On the other hand, the mobile phone app phenomenon is also evolving into an analogue for the gaming industry, with developers writing apps for one of only a few “platforms” (e.g. iPhone, Windows Mobile, Android, etc.). I expect to see developers selling versions of their apps onto multiple platforms, especially for the more popular ones, just as happens with game consoles.
The last, and most ominous similarity, is with Windows. Despite the existence of Android, there’s a chance the iPhone could become the uber platform, with most apps being written for it (at least first), creating a Microsoft-like dominance of phone applications. All of which leads to the following prediction for the New Year:
The most widespread iPhone application in 2009 will be a virus.
Think about it. All the elements are already there:
- rocketing platform/device popularity with a growing market share
- viral growth in application number and complexity, providing plenty of ready vectors for the introduction of malicious code
- existence of a large, dedicated, developer base
- a ready black market for both hardware and software–which means plenty of hackers.
Despite assurances to the contrary from its PR department, Apple software is not virus proof. It’s largely benefited from a lack of attention given its small (though growing) share of the desktop/laptop market. But the success of the iPhone changes those dynamics. Already, iphone dev team has unlocked the iPhone 3G, and is even now delivering its yellowsn0w software to the masses.
True, Android will undoubtedly be more vulnerable, given its marketplace model and the lack of a central control. But betting against hackers has always been a sucker play, and it will remain so even for the iPhone. Just ask the Blu-ray folks.
The predators are circling. And it’s only a matter of time.
Disclosure: The author holds no position in any of the stocks mentioned here.
Entry Filed under: Consumer, Miscellaneous, Wireless. Tags: Apple, Google, Salesforce.com.
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1.
Kontra | January 10, 2009 at 6:51 am
“Despite assurances to the contrary from its PR department, Apple software is not virus proof. ”
Do you have a link where Apple’s PR dept officially claims that? Didn’t think so.
Do you understand the fundamental difference between hacking an iPhone a la yellowsn0w and a virus?
Do you understand why some of the limitations Apple has put in (including app segregation and little/no access to dock, carrier I/O, app-specific file space, inter-app I/O, etc), coupled with pre-screening in the App Store make it highly unlikely for a virus to spread before Apple activates the remote kill switch?
While there’s no 100% security and a virus can be introduced into the iPhone ecosystem, there’s no way it would become the “most widespread app.”
For a tech exec, one would have hoped you’d be better informed about what you write.
I’m willing to take on the bet. You name the bar in Darien.
2.
Scott Berry | January 10, 2009 at 7:24 am
Kontra, thanks for your comments. Yes, I understand a bit more than you seem to think. I also probably have a broader sense of the term “virus” than you do.
Given the many comments I’ve received from enthusiasts about Apple’s security lately, in hindsight it might have been better to say the most widespread app in a *smartphone*. Would have been easier than trying to explain “dramatic license”.
On the other hand, the ability to force Apple to activate that kill switch, and shut down an application–perhaps even the most popular one–in every iPhone in the world sounds like a pretty powerful infection to me.
3.
Kontra | January 10, 2009 at 8:32 am
I can see why you need dramatic license. Your piece struck me as pure drama with no basis in fact or history.
In the last decade, Apple nearly quadrupled its market share in the US to about 10%. With no widespread virus outbreak whatsoever! The iPhone went from 0 to 20+ million in 18 months with zero virus propagation. So there’s no historical trend analysis that could possibly give you the license to speculate on such unlikely scenarios.
For the better part of a decade in search of features and market dominance, MSFT paid no attention to security in Windows, as Bill Gates himself has stated recently. There are tens of millions of Wintel machines around the world pre-dating XP/Vista virtually unprotected that can never be really secured. Until that massive and fertile ground for virus propagation dies off not much can be done about security in that ecosystem. That simply doesn’t exist in the iPhone world.
I cited some barriers that would render virus spread on iPhones very unlikely. I’d be glad to get into details, if you’d like.
Other than pure drama, because it may be fashionable to be snarky about AAPL these days, is there any other reason why your prediction is justified in the least?
4.
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