Comments on: Alias Mr. Moneybags http://scottjberry.com/2008/05/09/alias-mr-moneybags/ Comments on Digital Media, small cap tech stocks, internet, telecom. And the kitchen sink. Sun, 24 Jan 2010 03:23:14 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Scott Berry http://scottjberry.com/2008/05/09/alias-mr-moneybags/#comment-38 Scott Berry Fri, 09 May 2008 19:40:25 +0000 http://scottjberry.wordpress.com/?p=63#comment-38 You probably know I like Ceragon Networks. They benefit no matter what form the mobile data explosion takes, since they sell backhaul radios. Strong eventual takeout candidate as well. You've hit the nail on the head re mobile mfrs. vs. operators. Apple's precedent on reversing the subsidy model brings hope, but then Apple is sort of the anti-DivX... Problem with fiber to home is it'll end up creating another monopoly. If it's the local municipality I'm fine with it, as they'll let everybody sell me service then. You probably know I like Ceragon Networks. They benefit no matter what form the mobile data explosion takes, since they sell backhaul radios. Strong eventual takeout candidate as well.

You’ve hit the nail on the head re mobile mfrs. vs. operators. Apple’s precedent on reversing the subsidy model brings hope, but then Apple is sort of the anti-DivX…

Problem with fiber to home is it’ll end up creating another monopoly. If it’s the local municipality I’m fine with it, as they’ll let everybody sell me service then.

]]> By: Davis Freeberg http://scottjberry.com/2008/05/09/alias-mr-moneybags/#comment-37 Davis Freeberg Fri, 09 May 2008 19:28:10 +0000 http://scottjberry.wordpress.com/?p=63#comment-37 I see WiMax as being important, but 3G is really Interdigital's bread and butter. I first discovered them when I was researching mobile video. I suspect that the cell phone makers are avoiding things like DivX because their real customers are the cell phone networks and not the consumers who actually use the phones. Since the networks are more interested in selling data, I think they'll use streaming video to drive demand for bandwidth instead of embracing offline solutions. To do that they'll need to upgrade their networks which should mean more licensing for Interdigital. Interestingly enough, Robert X Cringley just published a pretty good piece explaining some of the limitations for WiMax and it doesn't sound like he's convinced that it will live up to the hype either. With so much money having already been invested in WiMax, it would seem pretty tough for them to pull out now, but then again no one likes throwing good money after bad. I'm more excited about seeing fiber eventually rollout to the home, but it would still be cool to be able to get blistering fast access off of a wireless connection. I just hope that they can figure out a way to make it that won't end up costing an arm and a leg. http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2008/pulpit_20080509_004880.html I see WiMax as being important, but 3G is really Interdigital’s bread and butter. I first discovered them when I was researching mobile video. I suspect that the cell phone makers are avoiding things like DivX because their real customers are the cell phone networks and not the consumers who actually use the phones. Since the networks are more interested in selling data, I think they’ll use streaming video to drive demand for bandwidth instead of embracing offline solutions. To do that they’ll need to upgrade their networks which should mean more licensing for Interdigital.

Interestingly enough, Robert X Cringley just published a pretty good piece explaining some of the limitations for WiMax and it doesn’t sound like he’s convinced that it will live up to the hype either. With so much money having already been invested in WiMax, it would seem pretty tough for them to pull out now, but then again no one likes throwing good money after bad. I’m more excited about seeing fiber eventually rollout to the home, but it would still be cool to be able to get blistering fast access off of a wireless connection. I just hope that they can figure out a way to make it that won’t end up costing an arm and a leg.

http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/2008/pulpit_20080509_004880.html

]]> By: Scott Berry http://scottjberry.com/2008/05/09/alias-mr-moneybags/#comment-36 Scott Berry Fri, 09 May 2008 18:30:39 +0000 http://scottjberry.wordpress.com/?p=63#comment-36 Not too familiar with Interdigital, but I admit I'm a fan of IP plays with big moats. Motley Fool recently had a logical sounding bear analysis based solely on financials, which by my measure makes it incomplete. My contacts mostly insist WiMax is no technical panacea, especially compared with WiFi. I do know that the breathless statements about bit rates and distances don't typically bear up in real life, and Clearwire has been a fixed wireless local loop bypass play, that competes better with DSL than cable. The question is whether national scale and actual mobile WiMax performance can overcome the high costs of both the gear (relative to WiFi) and large spectrum costs. I'm very dubious. WiMax has frequently been compared to Token Ring (vs. WiFi's ethernet), another similarly lauded technology that died on the vine. Not too familiar with Interdigital, but I admit I’m a fan of IP plays with big moats. Motley Fool recently had a logical sounding bear analysis based solely on financials, which by my measure makes it incomplete.

My contacts mostly insist WiMax is no technical panacea, especially compared with WiFi. I do know that the breathless statements about bit rates and distances don’t typically bear up in real life, and Clearwire has been a fixed wireless local loop bypass play, that competes better with DSL than cable.

The question is whether national scale and actual mobile WiMax performance can overcome the high costs of both the gear (relative to WiFi) and large spectrum costs. I’m very dubious. WiMax has frequently been compared to Token Ring (vs. WiFi’s ethernet), another similarly lauded technology that died on the vine.

]]> By: Davis Freeberg http://scottjberry.com/2008/05/09/alias-mr-moneybags/#comment-35 Davis Freeberg Fri, 09 May 2008 17:41:42 +0000 http://scottjberry.wordpress.com/?p=63#comment-35 There are a lot of firms that will benefit from Wimax, but if I was betting on this trend, I would be looking at Interdigital. They're kind of a patent troll, so it's on my list of sin stocks, but I still have to admire what they've been able to accomplish. They have over 7,000 patents and another 10,000 applications on file. They are part of the standards board for Wimax, 3G and they've got their hooks in LTE. In the last six months, they've settled or won 3 substantial cases and have been buying about 25% of their stock each year for the last 2 years. They don't always pick up the most buzz, but damn do their numbers look sexy. I can't really figure out why they only trade at a billion, but would be interested in hearing the bear argument for them. I'm not a big fan of companies that have to sue as part of their business model, but they won't have the cost of revenue issues that Clearwire and Sprint will have to worry about. Clearwire should still have a good future, but considering that IDCC is profitable, bringing in twice the amount of money, aren't responsible for building out this technology and trades at half the valuation, it seems like a better way to play the next generation of internet. There are a lot of firms that will benefit from Wimax, but if I was betting on this trend, I would be looking at Interdigital. They’re kind of a patent troll, so it’s on my list of sin stocks, but I still have to admire what they’ve been able to accomplish. They have over 7,000 patents and another 10,000 applications on file. They are part of the standards board for Wimax, 3G and they’ve got their hooks in LTE. In the last six months, they’ve settled or won 3 substantial cases and have been buying about 25% of their stock each year for the last 2 years. They don’t always pick up the most buzz, but damn do their numbers look sexy. I can’t really figure out why they only trade at a billion, but would be interested in hearing the bear argument for them. I’m not a big fan of companies that have to sue as part of their business model, but they won’t have the cost of revenue issues that Clearwire and Sprint will have to worry about. Clearwire should still have a good future, but considering that IDCC is profitable, bringing in twice the amount of money, aren’t responsible for building out this technology and trades at half the valuation, it seems like a better way to play the next generation of internet.

]]> By: Chris Moran http://scottjberry.com/2008/05/09/alias-mr-moneybags/#comment-34 Chris Moran Fri, 09 May 2008 16:33:20 +0000 http://scottjberry.wordpress.com/?p=63#comment-34 Nice writing style. Looking forward to reading more from you. Chris Moran Nice writing style. Looking forward to reading more from you.

Chris Moran

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